New Hampshire Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen held on during the 2014 GOP wave
New Hampshire has a reputation as one of the swingiest states in the nation, but both Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and Gov. Maggie Hassan managed to hold on during last year's GOP election wave. However, Team Red retook the state House and held onto the state Senate. The state House in particular is the most volatile legislative chamber in the nation. Democrats held this chamber in 2006 and 2008, only to see the GOP transform the Democratic majority into a GOP supermajority in 2010. Democrats flipped the state House back in 2012, but the GOP now holds a 239-160 majority. Got that? Whew.
The state isn't actually divided into 400 tiny seats though: New Hampshire has 204 state House districts that elect anywhere between one to 11 members. To make things even more complicated, 43 of these seats are floterial districts that overlap with other state House seats. Because there are so many candidates running in tiny districts, it's pretty hard for state representatives to establish enough personal popularity to hold on when things go wrong for their party. Since the state House is so massive and is only part time, plenty of fairly random people get elected when things go right for their party, and it's pretty common for some of them to resign to pursue other endeavors.
The good news for Team Blue is that it has a good shot at retaking this massive chamber the next time the political winds are blowing its way. Keep reading below to find out why.
While the GOP had supermajorities in both houses when the new lines were drawn for the 2012 round of redistricting, there was only so much they could do to gerrymander a chamber as complex as the state House. Shaheen carried the median seat in the state House 51.7 percent to 48.3 percent, actually a little better than her 51.6 percent to 48.4 percent statewide performance against Republican Scott Brown. (The median seat is useful for calculating the theoretical half-way point in the chamber. If Democrats held every seat bluer, or Republicans held every seat redder, they'd control a majority of seats in that body.) Things aren't that different in the gubernatorial contest: Hassan took the median seat 52 percent to 48 percent, a little worse than her 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent margin statewide against Walt Havenstein.
New Hampshire wasn't immune to last year's GOP wave. Because Shaheen drew a flawed opponent like Brown (who had just moved to the state from Massachusetts to challenge her) and Hassan also had a weak foe and plenty of popularity, they were able to win. But voters angry with the Obama administration still voted GOP down-ballot. However, if 2016 is a good Democratic year and Team Blue carries New Hampshire again, Democrats should have a great shot at retaking the state House.
The 24-member state Senate is another story. The GOP was able to gerrymander the chamber and narrowly hold it in 2012, and now have a 14 to 10 majority. Shaheen took 14 districts but only carried the median seat 50.7 percent to 49.4 percent (because of rounding, this adds up to a little more than 100 percent), a bit to the right of her statewide win. Hassan also captured 14 districts but only narrowly won the median seat 51 percent to 49 percent. By contrast, Obama only carried half the chamber in 2012 and took the median seat 50.1 to 48.7 even as he was winning New Hampshire 52.2 to 46.6. The GOP doesn't have a lock on the state Senate, but Democrats are going to need some luck if they're going to take a narrow majority.
New Hampshire only has two congressional districts, and they voted quite differently last year. The 1st, which includes Manchester, is held by Republican Frank Guinta, who unseated Democratic incumbent Carol Shea-Porter 51.7 to 48.1. The 2nd, which includes Nashua and the northern tip of the state, is held by Democrat Annie Kuster, who won a second term by 54.9 percent to 44.9 percent. Hassan carried both seats, but the difference is striking: While the 2nd went for her 54.1 percent to 45.9 percent, she only took the 1st by 50.9 percent to 49.1 percent. Shaheen lost the 1st 50.7 percent to 49.3 percent, but her 53.9 percent to 46.1 percent win in the 2nd made up the difference. Democrats were already planning to target Guinta before he was sworn in, but a campaign finance scandal has made him incredibly vulnerable.
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