Thursday, October 2, 2014

Premiere Week Year-to-Year: Winners, Losers, Networks - Next ...

With Premiere Week 2014 in the books, let's take a look at how it compared with Premiere Week 2013. We'll examine the shows and timeslots that changed the most vs. 2013, plus the network race.

For these top 10 lists, I've weeded out the CW, Saturday shows, and sports pre-game stuff. The "TIMESLOT" lists compare only this premiere week vs. last year's premiere week, while the "SHOW" lists compare season premieres vs. season premieres (including many premieres that were before or after the premiere week last year).


Top 10 TIMESLOT Improvements:

1. Grey's Anatomy (vs. Agents of SHIELD (R)) +158%

2. Family Guy (vs. Family Guy/American Dad!) +91%

3. Thursday Night Football (vs. The Big Bang Theory/The Crazy Ones/Two and a Half Men/Elementary) +76%

4. The Big Bang Theory (vs. How I Met Your Mother) +48%

5. Forever (vs. Lucky 7) +44%

6. Once Upon a Time (vs. itself) +42%

7. The Simpsons (vs. itself) +34%

8. 20/20 (vs. itself) +23%

9. Shark Tank (vs. Last Man Standing/The Neighbors/Shark Tank) +23%

10. Scorpion (vs. 2 Broke Girls/Mom) +21%

Grey's number wouldn't have been so gaudy if compared against, say, the premiere of Once Upon a Time in Wonderland last year. But once we start comparing where Grey's settles vs. where Wonderland settled, it may end up back in this general vicinity.

Forever and Scorpion were the only two newbies on this list, and both of them became even bigger timeslot improvements in week two. Even with Forever's big week two drop, it benefited because Lucky 7 totally melted down in week two.

Top 10 SHOW Improvements:

1. Family Guy +73%

2. Once Upon a Time +42%

3. The Simpsons +34%

4. 20/20 +23%

5. Scandal +8%

6. Dateline Fri +8%

7. Shark Tank +6%

8. Survivor +4%

t-9. Brooklyn Nine-Nine (Sun 8:30 vs. Tue 8:30) +0%

t-9. 48 Hours +0%


Top 10 TIMESLOT Declines:

1. Sleepy Hollow (R) (vs. Glee) -70%

2. Dancing with the Stars Tue (vs. Agents of SHIELD) -63%

3. Red Band Society (vs. The X Factor) -58%

4. Utopia Fri (vs. MasterChef Junior) -58%

5. Utopia Tue (vs. Dads/Brooklyn Nine-Nine) -52%

6. Hell's Kitchen (vs. The X Factor) -48%

7. Sleepy Hollow (vs. itself) -45%

8. New Girl (vs. itself) -38%

9. Chicago PD (vs. Law and Order: SVU) -34%

10. The Mindy Project (vs. itself) -33%

This is a lot of Fox.

A couple notable declines that just missed the list: the two ends of CBS' Amazing Race move (Fri 8/7c with TAR and Sun 8/7c with Madam Secretary) were down 31%/30% respectively. Not the trend CBS was looking for out of that swap.

Top 10 SHOW Declines:

1. Agents of SHIELD -55%

2. The Amazing Race (Fri 8:00 vs. Sun 8:00) -45%

3. Sleepy Hollow -43%

4. New Girl -41%

5. CSI (Sun 10:00 vs. Wed 10:00) -35%

6. Revenge (Sun 10:00 vs. Sun 9:00) -35%

7. Resurrection -34%

8. The Mindy Project -32%

9. Bones (Thu 8:00 vs. Mon 8:00) -30%

10. Blue Bloods -29%


Nielsen's official numbers were NBC 3.0, CBS 2.4, ABC 2.2, Fox 2.0. From what I can tell, CBS is being allowed to count the combined CBS/NFLN numbers for Thursday Night Football in the CBS network averages. So I'm doing that throughout this post, mostly because it's a logistical hassle to do it the other way. But it is very much worth keeping in mind, as it adds 0.1-0.2 to the CBS average every week.

Here's a table with the year-to-year trend for each network on each night of opening week:

Premiere Week y2y ABC CBS NBC Fox CW Total
Monday -10%+28%-20%+3%+25%-3%
Tuesday -35%-20%-10%-43%-14%-24%
Wednesday -13%+9%-22%-53%+80%-20%
Thursday +35%+43%-20%-46%-11%+13%
Friday +24%-28%+1%-44%-17%-12%
Saturday -41%-10%-10%-20%
Sunday +18%-21%-2%+27%
Total -4% +6% -8% -12% +9% -5%

The extent of Fox's nightmare from Tuesday through Friday was truly amazing, down by 40%+ for four straight nights. And it's not like Saturday (a 0.4 football game vs. last year's 0.5 football game) was really any better.

Here's how it looked using just original non-sports series:

Week Ending ABC CBS NBC Fox CW
1 9/28/2014107921108817
2013-14 Week 1 98961178812
2013-14 Final 961061039434

If you want ABC to emerge as the original non-sports champ of the season, something they've never done in the A18-49+ era, there certainly seems to be a path here. Last year, it dropped only two relative points from premiere week to season's end despite a premiere week event (the Agents of SHIELD premiere) that may have been more inflated than anything they did this year. CBS will get stronger, as they always do, and NBC will probably come down at least somewehat. I'd say none of those three should be counted out yet.

As for Fox? Well... they were at a 66 until their huge Sunday. Sunday always helps Fox, but for an apples-to-apples comparison, they were at 82 prior to Sunday of premiere week last year. So sustaining the even year-to-year in Plus pace would be a miracle.


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Hakobune ? Yokohama Seasider

Over 150 varieties of fine sake. How else could we begin this review? That’s Hakobune’s claim to fame in the Kannai area, but this izakaya offers much more to distinguish itself.

But let’s start with that fantastic selection. If you know your sake, you’ll probably tremble with glee at the all-you-can-drink plans. Even if you don’t know sake, these are great options for drinking around and comparing flavors. Seasider publisher Ry Beville is actually a Certified Sake Professional and gives this place a big thumbs up for both selection and cost performance.

The cheapest plan is ¥2000 and lasts two hours, offering five well-known brands, including Kirinzan and Hakkaisan. The plans also include other alcoholic beverages like shochu, mixed drinks and beer. The ¥2500 plan features ten selections of sake, including two “ginjo” (premium) and two “junmai” (pure rice) brands. The sake geek’s premium plan tops out at ¥3000. It spreads the love with twenty varieties chosen by the store manager, including two “daiginjo” (super-premium) brands. Beville advises that you not get too caught up in the “premium” labels, though; there are many other excellent sake. Note that the last order is 30 minutes before time’s up. If you are not looking to binge and just want a selection or two, you only need pocket change. Some start less than ¥600, while some super premium sake are much pricier. One delightful discovery was that Hakobune also serves two varieties of Swan Lake craft beer from Niigata. Definitely go for a bottle if you need to change pace.

Hakobune is as attractive for its food as for its sake. It specializes in traditional, seasonal Japanese, with dishes rich in fish and vegetables. It offers extremely affordable banquet plans to go along with the sake, starting as low as ¥3000. Plans change each month.

The dim, sake-themed interior is attractive and well-suited for larger groups. It can get a little smoky, but some sections allow you to pull a curtain. Enjoy your feast in private.


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